Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 24 · 16:30 · Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 69%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 69% for the home win. The market says 65%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Dortmund69%65%+4
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−2
OursMarket
Eintracht Frankfurt15%17%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 64% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 35% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 80% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Dortmund
WinWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 17 · at 1. FC Union Berlin (A)0-0
- Oct 14 · at Bodø/Glimt (A)0-1
- Oct 9 · v SV Werder Bremen (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v SC Paderborn 07 (H)3-0
Eintracht Frankfurt
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 16 · v 1. FC Köln (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-6
- Sep 19 · v SC Freiburg (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at 1. FSV Mainz 05 (A)3-1
- Sep 6 · v FC Augsburg (H)1-4
| Last 10 games | Borussia Dortmund | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Borussia Dortmund form·Eintracht Frankfurt form·Head-to-head record