Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Mar 8 · 14:30 · Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 58%
A tight one: we make it 58% for the home win. No bookmaker price yet to compare it against.
Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night, priced or not.
Who wins
Borussia Dortmund58%——
OursMarket
Draw22%——
OursMarket
FC Augsburg20%——
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | — | — |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | — | — |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | — | — |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | — | — |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Dortmund
LossDrawWinWinDraw
- Mar 4 · v LOSC Lille (H)1-1
- Mar 1 · at St. Pauli (A)2-0
- Feb 22 · v FC Union Berlin (H)6-0
- Feb 19 · v Sporting CP (H)0-0
- Feb 15 · at VfL Bochum 1848 (A)0-2
FC Augsburg
LossDrawDrawWinDraw
- Mar 2 · v SC Freiburg (H)0-0
- Feb 22 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)3-0
- Feb 14 · v RB Leipzig (H)0-0
- Feb 8 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)0-0
- Feb 4 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Borussia Dortmund | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-2 | 3-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.