Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Mar 21 · 17:30 · Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 55%
We make it 64% for both teams to score. The market says 53%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Dortmund55%68%−13
OursMarket
Draw22%19%+3
OursMarket
Hamburger SV23%13%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 53% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 87% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 32% | +13 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 81% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 84% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Dortmund
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Mar 14 · v FC Augsburg (H)2-0
- Mar 7 · at FC Köln (A)2-1
- Feb 28 · v FC Bayern München (H)2-3
- Feb 25 · at Atalanta (A)1-4
- Feb 21 · at RB Leipzig (A)2-2
Hamburger SV
DrawLossLossWinDraw
- Mar 14 · v FC Köln (H)1-1
- Mar 7 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)2-1
- Mar 4 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)0-1
- Mar 1 · v RB Leipzig (H)1-2
- Feb 20 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Borussia Dortmund | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Borussia Dortmund form·Hamburger SV form·Head-to-head record