Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Aug 29 · 16:30 · Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 52%
A 25% away win. The market says 10%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Dortmund52%73%−21
OursMarket
Draw23%17%+6
OursMarket
Hamburger SV25%10%+15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 64% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 52% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 90% | −15 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 27% | +21 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 83% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 87% | −20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Dortmund
LossWinLossWinWin
- May 16 · at Werder Bremen (A)2-0
- May 8 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)3-2
- May 3 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)0-1
- Apr 26 · v SC Freiburg (H)4-0
- Apr 18 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-2
Hamburger SV
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Aug 24 · at SC Verl (A)3-0
- May 16 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)1-1
- May 10 · v SC Freiburg (H)3-2
- May 2 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Borussia Dortmund | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Borussia Dortmund form·Hamburger SV form·Head-to-head record