Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Feb 1 · 16:30 · Borussia Dortmund vs Heidenheim
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 59%
A 19% away win. The market says 9%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Dortmund59%76%−18
OursMarket
Draw22%15%+7
OursMarket
Heidenheim19%9%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 66% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 50% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 91% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 24% | +18 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 85% | −7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 90% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Dortmund
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Jan 28 · v Inter (H)0-2
- Jan 24 · at FC Union Berlin (A)3-0
- Jan 20 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)0-2
- Jan 17 · v St. Pauli (H)3-2
- Jan 13 · v Werder Bremen (H)3-0
Heidenheim
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Jan 24 · v RB Leipzig (H)0-3
- Jan 17 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-1
- Jan 13 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-2
- Jan 10 · v FC Köln (H)2-2
- Dec 21 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-4
| Last 10 games | Borussia Dortmund | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.