Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Apr 26 · 15:30 · Borussia Dortmund vs SC Freiburg
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 51%
A 26% away win. The market says 13%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Dortmund51%69%−18
OursMarket
Draw24%18%+5
OursMarket
SC Freiburg26%13%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 62% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 53% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 87% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 31% | +18 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 82% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 85% | −18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Dortmund
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Apr 18 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-2
- Apr 11 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)0-1
- Apr 4 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)2-0
- Mar 21 · v Hamburger SV (H)3-2
- Mar 14 · v FC Augsburg (H)2-0
SC Freiburg
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Apr 23 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-2
- Apr 19 · v Heidenheim (H)2-1
- Apr 16 · at Celta de Vigo (A)3-1
- Apr 12 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-0
- Apr 9 · v Celta de Vigo (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Borussia Dortmund | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 6-0-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.