Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Sep 12 · 13:30 · Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 80%
A tight one: we make it 80% for the home win. The market says 77%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Dortmund80%77%+3
OursMarket
Draw11%14%−2
OursMarket
SC Paderborn 079%9%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 91% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 20% | 23% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 89% | 86% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 90% | 89% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Dortmund
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 8 · v Villarreal (H)3-2
- Sep 5 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)3-2
- Sep 1 · at Hamburg-Eimsbütteler Ballspiel Club 1911 (A)5-0
- Aug 29 · v Hamburger SV (H)2-0
- May 16 · at Werder Bremen (A)2-0
SC Paderborn 07
DrawWinDrawLoss
- Sep 5 · v SC Freiburg (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at 1. FSV Mainz 05 (A)0-0
- Aug 23 · at 1.FC Phönix Lübeck (A)4-2
- May 25 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Borussia Dortmund | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | — |
| Both teams scored | 40% | — |
| Clean sheets | 40% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.