Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Jan 17 · 14:30 · Borussia Dortmund vs St. Pauli
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 65%
A tight one: we make it 65% for the home win. The market says 70%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Dortmund65%70%−5
OursMarket
Draw21%19%+2
OursMarket
St. Pauli14%11%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 56% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 47% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 86% | 89% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 30% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 81% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 82% | 86% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Dortmund
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Jan 13 · v Werder Bremen (H)3-0
- Jan 9 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)3-3
- Dec 19 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)2-0
- Dec 14 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-1
- Dec 10 · v Bodø / Glimt (H)2-2
St. Pauli
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Jan 14 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-2
- Dec 21 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)0-0
- Dec 13 · v Heidenheim (H)2-1
- Dec 6 · at FC Köln (A)1-1
- Dec 2 · at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Borussia Dortmund | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.