Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:30 · Borussia Dortmund vs SV Werder Bremen
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 72%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 72% for the home win. The market says 69%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Dortmund72%69%+3
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
SV Werder Bremen12%13%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 31% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Dortmund
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 19 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · v SC Paderborn 07 (H)3-0
- Sep 8 · v Villarreal (H)3-2
- Sep 5 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)3-2
- Sep 1 · at Hamburg-Eimsbütteler Ballspiel Club 1911 (A)5-0
SV Werder Bremen
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 19 · v FC Augsburg (H)3-2
- Sep 12 · at 1. FC Köln (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v RB Leipzig (H)3-1
- Aug 30 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-4
- Aug 22 · at LSK Hansa Lüneburg (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Borussia Dortmund | SV Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 9-0-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.