Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Dec 7 · 16:30 · Borussia Dortmund vs TSG Hoffenheim
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 44%
A 33% away win. The market says 20%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Dortmund44%59%−15
OursMarket
Draw23%21%+2
OursMarket
TSG Hoffenheim33%20%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 66% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 80% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 41% | +15 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 79% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 75% | −17 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Dortmund
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Dec 2 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)0-1
- Nov 29 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)2-1
- Nov 25 · v Villarreal (H)4-0
- Nov 22 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)3-3
- Nov 8 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-1
TSG Hoffenheim
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Nov 29 · v FC Augsburg (H)3-0
- Nov 21 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-1
- Nov 8 · v RB Leipzig (H)3-1
- Nov 2 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)3-2
- Oct 25 · v Heidenheim (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Borussia Dortmund | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Borussia Dortmund form·TSG Hoffenheim form·Head-to-head record