Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Nov 22 · 14:30 · Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 47%
A 31% away win. The market says 23%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Dortmund47%53%−7
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
VfB Stuttgart31%23%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 60% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 77% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 47% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 70% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Dortmund
WinWinWinLossDraw
- Nov 8 · at Hamburger SV (A)1-1
- Nov 5 · at Manchester City (A)1-4
- Oct 31 · at FC Augsburg (A)1-0
- Oct 25 · v FC Köln (H)1-0
- Oct 21 · at FC København (A)4-2
VfB Stuttgart
WinWinLossWinWin
- Nov 9 · v FC Augsburg (H)3-2
- Nov 6 · v Feyenoord (H)2-0
- Nov 1 · at RB Leipzig (A)1-3
- Oct 29 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)2-0
- Oct 26 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Borussia Dortmund | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Borussia Dortmund form·VfB Stuttgart form·Head-to-head record