Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Sep 8 · 19:00 · Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 54%
We make it 47% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Dortmund54%54%0
OursMarket
Draw21%23%−2
OursMarket
Villarreal25%23%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 62% | −8 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 70% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Dortmund
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 5 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)3-2
- Sep 1 · at Hamburg-Eimsbütteler Ballspiel Club 1911 (A)5-0
- Aug 29 · v Hamburger SV (H)2-0
- May 16 · at Werder Bremen (A)2-0
- May 8 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)3-2
Villarreal
WinDrawDrawLossLoss
- Sep 5 · v Deportivo La Coruña (H)2-3
- Aug 28 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)0-1
- Aug 23 · at Atletico Madrid (A)2-2
- Aug 16 · at Racing de Santander (A)2-2
- May 24 · v Atlético Madrid (H)5-1
| Last 10 games | Borussia Dortmund | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 1-5-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.