Bundesliga (Germany) · Tue, Jan 13 · 19:30 · Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 63%
We make it 42% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 35%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Dortmund63%69%−6
OursMarket
Draw20%18%+2
OursMarket
Werder Bremen17%13%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 65% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 87% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 31% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 82% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 84% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Dortmund
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Jan 9 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)3-3
- Dec 19 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)2-0
- Dec 14 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-1
- Dec 10 · v Bodø / Glimt (H)2-2
- Dec 7 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)2-0
Werder Bremen
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Dec 20 · at FC Augsburg (A)0-0
- Dec 14 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)0-4
- Dec 7 · at Hamburger SV (A)2-3
- Nov 29 · v FC Köln (H)1-1
- Nov 23 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Borussia Dortmund | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Borussia Dortmund form·Werder Bremen form·Head-to-head record