Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Feb 7 · 17:30 · Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Likeliest: Bayer 04 Leverkusen win · 40%
A 37% home win. The market says 27%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Mönchengladbach37%27%+10
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−2
OursMarket
Bayer 04 Leverkusen40%48%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 59% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 61% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 52% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 73% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 36% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Jan 31 · at Werder Bremen (A)1-1
- Jan 25 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)0-3
- Jan 17 · at Hamburger SV (A)0-0
- Jan 14 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-5
- Jan 11 · v FC Augsburg (H)4-0
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
LossWinWinWinWin
- Feb 3 · v St. Pauli (H)3-0
- Jan 31 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)3-1
- Jan 28 · v Villarreal (H)3-0
- Jan 24 · v Werder Bremen (H)1-0
- Jan 20 · at Olympiacos F.C. (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 6-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Borussia Mönchengladbach form·Bayer 04 Leverkusen form·Head-to-head record