Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, May 3 · 15:30 · Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund
Likeliest: Borussia Dortmund win · 40%
A 37% home win. The market says 26%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Mönchengladbach37%26%+11
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
Borussia Dortmund40%49%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 61% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 51% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 74% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 35% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach
DrawDrawLossDrawDraw
- Apr 25 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)0-0
- Apr 19 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-1
- Apr 4 · v Heidenheim (H)2-2
- Mar 21 · at FC Köln (A)3-3
Borussia Dortmund
WinWinLossLossWin
- Apr 26 · v SC Freiburg (H)4-0
- Apr 18 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-2
- Apr 11 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)0-1
- Apr 4 · at VfB Stuttgart (A)2-0
- Mar 21 · v Hamburger SV (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Borussia Mönchengladbach form·Borussia Dortmund form·Head-to-head record