Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Jan 11 · 14:30 · Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Augsburg
Likeliest: Borussia Mönchengladbach win · 38%
A 35% away win. The market says 24%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Mönchengladbach38%51%−12
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
FC Augsburg35%24%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 76% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 49% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 68% | −16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Dec 19 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-2
- Dec 13 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-3
- Dec 5 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-0
- Dec 2 · v St. Pauli (H)1-2
- Nov 28 · v RB Leipzig (H)0-0
FC Augsburg
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Dec 20 · v Werder Bremen (H)0-0
- Dec 13 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-1
- Dec 6 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)2-0
- Nov 29 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)0-3
- Nov 22 · v Hamburger SV (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Borussia Mönchengladbach | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Borussia Mönchengladbach form·FC Augsburg form·Head-to-head record