Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Feb 28 · 14:30 · Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FC Union Berlin
Likeliest: FC Union Berlin win · 41%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Mönchengladbach36%40%−3
OursMarket
Draw23%29%−6
OursMarket
FC Union Berlin41%31%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 46% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 65% | 52% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 69% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 60% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 71% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 56% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Feb 22 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-2
- Feb 14 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-3
- Feb 7 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-1
- Jan 31 · at Werder Bremen (A)1-1
- Jan 25 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)0-3
FC Union Berlin
LossLossDrawLossWin
- Feb 21 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-0
- Feb 14 · at Hamburger SV (A)2-3
- Feb 6 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)1-1
- Jan 31 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-3
- Jan 24 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Borussia Mönchengladbach | FC Union Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Borussia Mönchengladbach form·FC Union Berlin form·Head-to-head record