Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Apr 19 · 17:30 · Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05
Likeliest: Borussia Mönchengladbach win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Mönchengladbach40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
FSV Mainz 0535%32%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 56% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach
LossWinDrawDrawLoss
- Apr 11 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-1
- Apr 4 · v Heidenheim (H)2-2
- Mar 21 · at FC Köln (A)3-3
- Mar 13 · v St. Pauli (H)2-0
- Mar 6 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-4
FSV Mainz 05
WinWinWinLossLoss
- Apr 16 · at Strasbourg (A)0-4
- Apr 12 · v SC Freiburg (H)0-1
- Apr 9 · v Strasbourg (H)2-0
- Apr 4 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)2-1
- Mar 22 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Borussia Mönchengladbach | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Borussia Mönchengladbach form·FSV Mainz 05 form·Head-to-head record