Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Apr 4 · 13:30 · Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Heidenheim
Likeliest: Borussia Mönchengladbach win · 50%
A 26% away win. The market says 18%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Mönchengladbach50%60%−10
OursMarket
Draw24%22%+2
OursMarket
Heidenheim26%18%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 57% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 82% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 40% | +10 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 78% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 77% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Mar 21 · at FC Köln (A)3-3
- Mar 13 · v St. Pauli (H)2-0
- Mar 6 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-4
- Feb 28 · v FC Union Berlin (H)1-0
- Feb 22 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-2
Heidenheim
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Mar 21 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)3-3
- Mar 14 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-1
- Mar 7 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)2-4
- Feb 28 · at Werder Bremen (A)0-2
- Feb 22 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Heidenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 0-3-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Borussia Mönchengladbach form·Heidenheim form·Head-to-head record