Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Nov 28 · 19:30 · Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig
Likeliest: RB Leipzig win · 55%
A 55% away win. The market says 42%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Mönchengladbach24%33%−9
OursMarket
Draw21%25%−4
OursMarket
RB Leipzig55%42%+13
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 65% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 45% | 58% | −13 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 67% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 30% | 44% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach
LossWinWinWinWin
- Nov 22 · at Heidenheim (A)3-0
- Nov 8 · v FC Köln (H)3-1
- Nov 1 · at St. Pauli (A)4-0
- Oct 28 · v Karlsruher SC (H)3-1
- Oct 25 · v FC Bayern München (H)0-3
RB Leipzig
WinWinWinLossWin
- Nov 23 · v Werder Bremen (H)2-0
- Nov 8 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-3
- Nov 1 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)3-1
- Oct 28 · at Energie Cottbus (A)4-1
- Oct 25 · at FC Augsburg (A)6-0
| Last 10 games | Borussia Mönchengladbach | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Borussia Mönchengladbach form·RB Leipzig form·Head-to-head record