DFB Pokal (Germany) · Tue, Dec 2 · 17:00 · Borussia Mönchengladbach vs St. Pauli
Likeliest: Borussia Mönchengladbach win · 57%
We make it 64% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 50%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Mönchengladbach57%53%+4
OursMarket
Draw20%26%−6
OursMarket
St. Pauli23%21%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 50% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 79% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 47% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 74% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 72% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Nov 28 · v RB Leipzig (H)0-0
- Nov 22 · at Heidenheim (A)3-0
- Nov 8 · v FC Köln (H)3-1
- Nov 1 · at St. Pauli (A)4-0
- Oct 28 · v Karlsruher SC (H)3-1
St. Pauli
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Nov 29 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-3
- Nov 23 · v FC Union Berlin (H)0-1
- Nov 9 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-2
- Nov 1 · v Borussia Mönchengladbach (H)0-4
- Oct 25 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Borussia Mönchengladbach | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 1-0-9 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.