Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Mar 13 · 19:30 · Borussia Mönchengladbach vs St. Pauli
Likeliest: Borussia Mönchengladbach win · 45%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Mönchengladbach45%48%−3
OursMarket
Draw24%28%−5
OursMarket
St. Pauli32%24%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 44% | +18 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 49% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 76% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 52% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 72% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 66% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Mar 6 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-4
- Feb 28 · v FC Union Berlin (H)1-0
- Feb 22 · at SC Freiburg (A)1-2
- Feb 14 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)0-3
- Feb 7 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-1
St. Pauli
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Mar 8 · v Eintracht Frankfurt (H)0-0
- Feb 28 · at TSG Hoffenheim (A)1-0
- Feb 22 · v Werder Bremen (H)2-1
- Feb 14 · at Bayer 04 Leverkusen (A)0-4
- Feb 7 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Borussia Mönchengladbach | St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Borussia Mönchengladbach form·St. Pauli form·Head-to-head record