Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, May 16 · 13:30 · Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG Hoffenheim
Likeliest: Borussia Mönchengladbach win · 44%
We make it 73% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 69%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Mönchengladbach44%23%+21
OursMarket
Draw22%21%+1
OursMarket
TSG Hoffenheim34%56%−22
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 73% | 69% | +4 |
| Both teams score | 69% | 67% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 44% | +22 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 77% | −21 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 79% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 29% | +27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach
LossDrawDrawWinLoss
- May 9 · at FC Augsburg (A)1-3
- May 3 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)1-0
- Apr 25 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)0-0
- Apr 19 · v FSV Mainz 05 (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · at RB Leipzig (A)0-1
TSG Hoffenheim
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- May 9 · v Werder Bremen (H)1-0
- May 2 · v VfB Stuttgart (H)3-3
- Apr 25 · at Hamburger SV (A)2-1
- Apr 18 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)2-1
- Apr 10 · at FC Augsburg (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Borussia Mönchengladbach | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Borussia Mönchengladbach form·TSG Hoffenheim form·Head-to-head record