Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Dec 13 · 14:30 · Borussia Mönchengladbach vs VfL Wolfsburg
Likeliest: Borussia Mönchengladbach win · 48%
We make it 71% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 59%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Borussia Mönchengladbach48%47%+1
OursMarket
Draw22%25%−3
OursMarket
VfL Wolfsburg30%28%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 59% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 75% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 63% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Dec 5 · at FSV Mainz 05 (A)1-0
- Dec 2 · v St. Pauli (H)1-2
- Nov 28 · v RB Leipzig (H)0-0
- Nov 22 · at Heidenheim (A)3-0
- Nov 8 · v FC Köln (H)3-1
VfL Wolfsburg
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Dec 6 · v FC Union Berlin (H)3-1
- Nov 30 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)1-1
- Nov 22 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)1-3
- Nov 7 · at Werder Bremen (A)1-2
- Nov 2 · v TSG Hoffenheim (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Borussia Mönchengladbach | VfL Wolfsburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Borussia Mönchengladbach form·VfL Wolfsburg form·Head-to-head record