NWSL (USA) · Sat, Oct 17 · 00:00 · Boston Legacy FC vs Racing Louisville
Likeliest: Boston Legacy FC win · 61%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 65% for both teams to score. The market says 58%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Boston Legacy FC61%60%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%22%0
OursMarket
Racing Louisville17%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 58% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 40% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.2 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Boston Legacy FC
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 4 · at Portland Thorns FC (A)4-2
- Sep 26 · at Seattle Reign FC (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Houston Dash (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Washington Spirit (A)3-0
- Sep 5 · at Utah Royals FC (A)2-1
Racing Louisville
LossLossLossDrawDraw
- Oct 3 · v Utah Royals FC (H)1-1
- Sep 25 · v San Diego Wave FC (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Bay FC (A)0-2
- Sep 11 · v NJ/NY Gotham FC (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Angel City FC (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Boston Legacy FC | Racing Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-4 | 2-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.