Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sat, Oct 17 · 19:00 · Boston River vs Defensor Sporting
Likeliest: Defensor Sporting win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Boston River32%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Defensor Sporting36%35%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 44% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 51% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Boston River
LossLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 10 · at Montevideo Wanderers (A)3-1
- Oct 4 · v Juventud de Las Piedras (H)0-0
- Sep 26 · at Peñarol (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Progreso (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Racing de Montevideo (A)2-3
Defensor Sporting
WinLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 10 · v Cerro (H)0-0
- Oct 3 · at Albion FC (A)2-3
- Sep 27 · v Danubio (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Nacional (A)2-3
- Sep 13 · v Deportivo Maldonado (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Boston River | Defensor Sporting |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 0-7-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.