Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sun, Oct 4 · 16:00 · Boston River vs Juventud de Las Piedras
Likeliest: Juventud de Las Piedras win · 37%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Boston River31%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+3
OursMarket
Juventud de Las Piedras37%37%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 51% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Boston River
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 26 · at Peñarol (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Progreso (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Racing de Montevideo (A)2-3
- Sep 6 · at Liverpool UY (A)0-1
- Aug 29 · v Cerro (H)1-1
Juventud de Las Piedras
WinDrawDrawWinDraw
- Sep 27 · v Cerro (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Albion FC (A)3-1
- Sep 13 · v Danubio (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at Nacional (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Deportivo Maldonado (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Boston River | Juventud de Las Piedras |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.