Primera Division (Uruguay) · Mon, Jun 1 · 18:00 · Boston River vs Liverpool
Likeliest: Boston River win · 50%
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 29%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Boston River50%29%+21
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−2
OursMarket
Liverpool24%42%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 44% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 58% | +18 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 71% | −21 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 41% | +27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Boston River
LossWinWinLossLoss
- May 26 · at São Paulo (A)0-2
- May 23 · at Cerro Largo (A)0-3
- May 20 · v O'Higgins (H)3-2
- May 16 · v Cerro (H)4-1
- May 11 · at Deportivo Maldonado (A)1-2
Liverpool
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- May 24 · v Brentford (H)1-1
- May 22 · v Racing (H)0-0
- May 16 · at Peñarol (A)1-2
- May 15 · at Aston Villa (A)2-4
- May 9 · v Chelsea (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Boston River | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.