FA Cup (England) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · Boston United vs Scunthorpe United
Likeliest: Boston United win · 39%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 67% for both teams to score. The market says 57%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Boston United39%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Scunthorpe United34%33%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 57% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 67% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Boston United
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 10 · v Southend United (H)1-2
- Oct 3 · at Yeovil Town (A)0-6
- Sep 29 · at FC Halifax Town (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v AFC Fylde (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Forest Green Rovers (A)3-1
Scunthorpe United
LossLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at AFC Fylde (A)0-2
- Sep 29 · at Barrow AFC (A)0-3
- Sep 26 · v Hartlepool United (H)4-1
- Sep 19 · at Hornchurch (A)0-1
- Sep 16 · v Boreham Wood (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Boston United | Scunthorpe United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 3-0-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.