National League (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Boston United vs Southend United
Likeliest: Southend United win · 54%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 54% for the away win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Boston United22%25%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Southend United54%51%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 46% | 49% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 29% | 33% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Boston United
DrawWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 3 · at Yeovil Town (A)0-6
- Sep 29 · at FC Halifax Town (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v AFC Fylde (H)0-1
- Sep 19 · at Forest Green Rovers (A)3-1
- Sep 15 · v Woking (H)1-1
Southend United
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 3 · v AFC Fylde (H)3-1
- Sep 30 · at Eastleigh (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Barrow AFC (H)2-4
- Sep 19 · at Gateshead (A)6-1
- Sep 15 · v Tamworth (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Boston United | Southend United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.