Serie A (Brazil) · Sat, Oct 17 · 21:00 · Botafogo vs Chapecoense
Likeliest: Botafogo win · 70%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 70% for the home win. The market says 68%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Botafogo70%68%+2
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−1
OursMarket
Chapecoense12%14%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 64% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 32% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Botafogo
DrawWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 12 · at Coritiba (A)1-1
- Oct 7 · v Vasco da Gama (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at Mirassol (A)0-2
- Sep 16 · v Grêmio (H)3-2
- Sep 12 · v Red Bull Bragantino (H)1-1
Chapecoense
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 12 · v Athletico (H)1-4
- Oct 7 · at Vitória (A)0-4
- Sep 19 · at Atlético Mineiro (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Internacional (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · at Corinthians (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Botafogo | Chapecoense |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.