Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Fri, Aug 21 · 00:30 · Botafogo vs Cienciano
Likeliest: Botafogo win · 62%
A 22% draw. The market says 10%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Botafogo62%85%−23
OursMarket
Draw22%10%+12
OursMarket
Cienciano16%6%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 76% | −21 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 46% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 94% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 15% | +23 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 90% | −12 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 94% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Botafogo
DrawWinDrawLossLoss
- Aug 16 · at Vitória (A)0-1
- Aug 14 · at Cienciano (A)1-6
- Aug 9 · v Fluminense (H)1-1
- Jul 26 · at Cruzeiro (A)1-0
- Jul 23 · v Vitória (H)0-0
Cienciano
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Aug 16 · v Deportivo Garcilaso (H)0-0
- Aug 14 · v Botafogo (H)6-1
- Aug 6 · at Alianza Atlético de Sullana (A)0-1
- Aug 2 · v Universitario (H)2-0
- Jul 30 · v Lanús (H)4-0
| Last 10 games | Botafogo | Cienciano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.