First League (Bulgaria) · Sat, Aug 29 · 18:15 · Botev Plovdiv vs Levski Sofia
Likeliest: Levski Sofia win · 49%
A 28% home win. The market says 20%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Botev Plovdiv28%20%+7
OursMarket
Draw23%26%−3
OursMarket
Levski Sofia49%54%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 48% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 50% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 51% | 46% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 80% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 74% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 28% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Botev Plovdiv
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Aug 24 · at Botev Vratsa (A)0-1
- Aug 15 · at Ludogorets (A)0-2
- Aug 10 · v FK Spartak Varna (H)3-2
- Aug 1 · v Cherno More Varna (H)1-0
- Jul 27 · at CSKA Sofia (A)2-3
Levski Sofia
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Aug 26 · at AEK Athens (A)0-4
- Aug 22 · v FK Spartak Varna (H)6-0
- Aug 18 · v AEK Athens (H)0-0
- Aug 11 · at Kairat (A)1-0
- Aug 7 · v Lokomotiv Plovdiv (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Botev Plovdiv | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-6-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.