First League (Bulgaria) · Sun, Sep 13 · 17:30 · Botev Plovdiv vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Likeliest: Botev Plovdiv win · 54%
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Botev Plovdiv54%54%0
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Lokomotiv Plovdiv23%20%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 80% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 73% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Botev Plovdiv
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 4 · at Arda Kardzhali (A)3-2
- Aug 29 · v Levski Sofia (H)0-0
- Aug 24 · at Botev Vratsa (A)0-1
- Aug 15 · at Ludogorets (A)0-2
- Aug 10 · v FK Spartak Varna (H)3-2
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
LossLossLossLossWin
- Sep 6 · v Cherno More Varna (H)1-0
- Aug 28 · at FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (A)0-2
- Aug 24 · v Arda Kardzhali (H)0-1
- Aug 16 · v FK Dunav Ruse (H)1-2
- Aug 7 · at Levski Sofia (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Botev Plovdiv | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.