First League (Bulgaria) · Sat, Oct 10 · 17:00 · Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia
Likeliest: Botev Plovdiv win · 54%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 53%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Botev Plovdiv54%53%0
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Slavia Sofia19%20%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Botev Plovdiv
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 19 · at FK Septemvri Sofia (A)3-0
- Sep 13 · v Lokomotiv Plovdiv (H)2-0
- Sep 4 · at Arda Kardzhali (A)3-2
- Aug 29 · v Levski Sofia (H)0-0
- Aug 24 · at Botev Vratsa (A)0-1
Slavia Sofia
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Sep 18 · v FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · v FK Spartak Varna (H)0-0
- Sep 7 · at FK Dunav Ruse (A)1-0
- Sep 2 · v Levski Sofia (H)1-2
- Aug 28 · v FK Septemvri Sofia (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Botev Plovdiv | Slavia Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.