First League (Bulgaria) · Sat, Oct 10 · 12:00 · Botev Vratsa vs FK Spartak Varna
Likeliest: Botev Vratsa win · 47%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Botev Vratsa47%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
FK Spartak Varna23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 67% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Botev Vratsa
WinLossWinDrawDraw
- Sep 19 · at FK Dunav Ruse (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · v Levski Sofia (H)0-0
- Sep 4 · at FK Septemvri Sofia (A)3-2
- Aug 31 · at Arda Kardzhali (A)0-2
- Aug 24 · v Botev Plovdiv (H)1-0
FK Spartak Varna
LossDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 20 · v Lokomotiv Sofia (H)0-1
- Sep 13 · at Slavia Sofia (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v CSKA Sofia (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Ludogorets (H)1-1
- Aug 22 · at Levski Sofia (A)0-6
| Last 10 games | Botev Vratsa | FK Spartak Varna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.