First League (Bulgaria) · Sun, Sep 13 · 14:45 · Botev Vratsa vs Levski Sofia
Likeliest: Levski Sofia win · 65%
A tight one: we make it 65% for the away win. The market says 62%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Botev Vratsa13%16%−3
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Levski Sofia65%62%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 44% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 35% | 38% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 87% | 84% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 17% | 20% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 0.7 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Botev Vratsa
LossLossWinLossWin
- Sep 4 · at FK Septemvri Sofia (A)3-2
- Aug 31 · at Arda Kardzhali (A)0-2
- Aug 24 · v Botev Plovdiv (H)1-0
- Aug 16 · at CSKA Sofia (A)0-5
- Aug 10 · v Slavia Sofia (H)0-3
Levski Sofia
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Sep 5 · v FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (H)1-0
- Sep 2 · at Slavia Sofia (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Botev Plovdiv (A)0-0
- Aug 26 · at AEK Athens (A)0-4
- Aug 22 · v FK Spartak Varna (H)6-0
| Last 10 games | Botev Vratsa | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 80% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-6-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.