Ligue 2 (France) · Sat, Apr 11 · 12:00 · Boulogne vs Le Mans
Likeliest: Le Mans win · 47%
We make it 49% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 42%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Boulogne29%27%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%31%−6
OursMarket
Le Mans47%42%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 42% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 48% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 58% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 69% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 39% | −1 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Boulogne
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Apr 4 · at Reims (A)0-0
- Mar 20 · v Nancy (H)0-0
- Mar 13 · at Bastia (A)1-0
- Mar 6 · v Amiens SC (H)4-2
- Feb 27 · at Grenoble Foot 38 (A)0-0
Le Mans
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Apr 6 · v Pau (H)4-0
- Mar 20 · at Amiens SC (A)4-3
- Mar 13 · at Nancy (A)4-2
- Mar 7 · v Annecy (H)3-0
- Feb 28 · at Red Star (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Boulogne | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.