Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 22 · 19:00 · Bournemouth vs AC Milan
Likeliest: Bournemouth win · 42%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bournemouth42%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
AC Milan31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bournemouth
WinLossLossWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Sunderland (H)2-0
- Oct 15 · v SK Sturm Graz (H)3-0
- Oct 10 · at Chelsea (A)1-5
- Sep 20 · v Liverpool (H)0-1
- Sep 17 · at Real Sociedad (A)2-1
AC Milan
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 18 · v Atalanta (H)3-2
- Oct 18 · at AS Roma (A)2-4
- Oct 15 · at Red Bull Salzburg (A)4-0
- Oct 11 · at Sassuolo (A)1-1
- Oct 4 · v Juventus (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Bournemouth | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.