Premier League (England) · Sat, Sep 12 · 14:00 · Bournemouth vs Brentford
Likeliest: Bournemouth win · 37%
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bournemouth37%38%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Brentford36%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 62% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bournemouth
DrawLossDrawDrawWin
- Sep 8 · v Lincoln City (H)4-0
- Sep 5 · at Newcastle United (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Everton (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Manchester City (A)1-2
- May 24 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-1
Brentford
DrawWinWinDrawDraw
- Sep 5 · v Sunderland (H)1-1
- Aug 30 · at Leeds United (A)1-1
- Aug 25 · at Birmingham City (A)6-1
- Aug 22 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)3-0
- May 24 · at Liverpool (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Bournemouth | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-7-0 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.