Premier League (England) · Sat, Aug 29 · 14:00 · Bournemouth vs Everton
Likeliest: Bournemouth win · 53%
We make it 67% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bournemouth53%47%+6
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−3
OursMarket
Everton23%26%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 51% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 55% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 53% | −6 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 64% | +6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bournemouth
WinDrawDrawDrawLoss
- Aug 23 · at Manchester City (A)1-2
- May 24 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-1
- May 24 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-1
- May 19 · v Manchester City (H)1-1
- May 9 · at Fulham (A)1-0
Everton
DrawLossLossWinWin
- Aug 26 · at Preston North End (A)4-0
- Aug 22 · v Crystal Palace (H)2-0
- May 24 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)0-1
- May 17 · v Sunderland (H)1-3
- May 10 · at Crystal Palace (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Bournemouth | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.