EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Sep 8 · 18:45 · Bournemouth vs Lincoln City
Likeliest: Bournemouth win · 37%
A 27% draw. The market says 18%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bournemouth37%71%−34
OursMarket
Draw27%18%+10
OursMarket
Lincoln City35%11%+24
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 66% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 89% | −24 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 29% | +34 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 82% | −10 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 87% | −35 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bournemouth
DrawDrawLossDrawDraw
- Sep 5 · at Newcastle United (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Everton (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Manchester City (A)1-2
- May 24 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-1
- May 24 · at Nottingham Forest (A)1-1
Lincoln City
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Sep 5 · v Southampton (H)1-1
- Sep 1 · v Blackburn Rovers (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)1-0
- Aug 25 · at Blackpool (A)4-1
- Aug 22 · v Portsmouth (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Bournemouth | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-7-0 | 7-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.