Premier League (England) · Sun, Sep 20 · 13:00 · Bournemouth vs Liverpool
Likeliest: Liverpool win · 46%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bournemouth28%31%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Liverpool46%44%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 65% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 69% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 41% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bournemouth
DrawDrawWinDrawWin
- Sep 17 · at Real Sociedad (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Brentford (H)2-2
- Sep 8 · v Lincoln City (H)4-0
- Sep 5 · at Newcastle United (A)2-2
- Aug 29 · v Everton (H)1-1
Liverpool
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 15 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · v Fulham (H)0-0
- Sep 9 · v Atletico Madrid (H)2-1
- Sep 4 · at Ipswich Town (A)2-0
- Aug 29 · v Nottingham Forest (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Bournemouth | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-6-1 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-8-0 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.