Europa League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 19:00 · Bournemouth vs SK Sturm Graz
Likeliest: Bournemouth win · 83%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 83% for the home win. The market says 79%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bournemouth83%79%+3
OursMarket
Draw12%14%−2
OursMarket
SK Sturm Graz5%7%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 95% | 93% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 17% | 21% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 94% | 92% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bournemouth
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 10 · at Chelsea (A)1-5
- Sep 20 · v Liverpool (H)0-1
- Sep 17 · at Real Sociedad (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Brentford (H)2-2
- Sep 8 · v Lincoln City (H)4-0
SK Sturm Graz
LossWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 10 · at Austria Wien (A)2-0
- Sep 20 · at Red Bull Salzburg (A)0-3
- Sep 16 · v Stade Rennais (H)0-0
- Sep 13 · v LASK (H)2-1
- Aug 30 · at SK Rapid Wien (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Bournemouth | SK Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-7-1 | 3-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.