Premier League (England) · Sun, Oct 18 · 13:00 · Bournemouth vs Sunderland
Likeliest: Bournemouth win · 46%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bournemouth46%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Sunderland26%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 73% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bournemouth
DrawWinLossLossWin
- Oct 15 · v SK Sturm Graz (H)3-0
- Oct 10 · at Chelsea (A)1-5
- Sep 20 · v Liverpool (H)0-1
- Sep 17 · at Real Sociedad (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Brentford (H)2-2
Sunderland
LossWinLossLossWin
- Oct 15 · at Torreense (A)2-1
- Oct 10 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · at Manchester City (A)3-5
- Sep 16 · v AZ Alkmaar (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Arsenal (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Bournemouth | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.