Primera A (Colombia) · Fri, Oct 23 · 23:00 · Boyacá Chicó FC vs Atlético Bucaramanga
Likeliest: Atlético Bucaramanga win · 48%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 48% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Boyacá Chicó FC21%25%−4
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+2
OursMarket
Atlético Bucaramanga48%46%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 47% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 75% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 30% | 35% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Boyacá Chicó FC
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Atlético Nacional (H)1-4
- Oct 11 · v Cúcuta Deportivo (H)0-1
- Oct 3 · at Deportes Tolima (A)0-0
- Sep 25 · v Deportivo Pasto (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Millonarios (A)0-3
Atlético Bucaramanga
WinDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 18 · v América de Cali (H)1-1
- Oct 13 · v Rionegro Águilas Doradas (H)1-1
- Oct 4 · v Junior Barranquilla (H)3-1
- Sep 26 · at Once Caldas (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Internacional de Bogotá (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Boyacá Chicó FC | Atlético Bucaramanga |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-6-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-3 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.