Primera A (Colombia) · Sat, Oct 17 · 20:00 · Boyacá Chicó FC vs Atlético Nacional
Likeliest: Atlético Nacional win · 67%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 67% for the away win. The market says 63%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Boyacá Chicó FC10%14%−4
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Atlético Nacional67%63%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 44% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 33% | 37% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 90% | 86% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 13% | 18% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Boyacá Chicó FC
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · v Cúcuta Deportivo (H)0-1
- Oct 3 · at Deportes Tolima (A)0-0
- Sep 25 · v Deportivo Pasto (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Millonarios (A)0-3
- Sep 16 · v Alianza Valledupar FC (H)1-2
Atlético Nacional
WinLossDrawWinDraw
- Oct 8 · v Deportes Tolima (H)0-0
- Oct 1 · v Junior Barranquilla (H)3-1
- Sep 25 · v Millonarios (H)1-1
- Sep 21 · at Llaneros FC (A)0-2
- Sep 17 · at Internacional de Bogotá (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Boyacá Chicó FC | Atlético Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-2 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.