Primera A (Colombia) · Tue, Oct 13 · 01:10 · Boyacá Chicó FC vs Cúcuta Deportivo
Likeliest: Boyacá Chicó FC win · 40%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Boyacá Chicó FC40%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+2
OursMarket
Cúcuta Deportivo28%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 42% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Boyacá Chicó FC
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 11 · v Cúcuta Deportivo (H)0-1
- Oct 3 · at Deportes Tolima (A)0-0
- Sep 25 · v Deportivo Pasto (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Millonarios (A)0-3
- Sep 16 · v Alianza Valledupar FC (H)1-2
Cúcuta Deportivo
LossLossWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Boyacá Chicó FC (A)1-0
- Oct 4 · v Deportivo Pereira (H)4-0
- Sep 26 · v Llaneros FC (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Deportivo Cali (A)0-3
- Sep 14 · v Millonarios (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Boyacá Chicó FC | Cúcuta Deportivo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-2 | 2-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.