Oddset Pokalen (Denmark) · Wed, Oct 28 · 12:30 · Brabrand vs AC Horsens
Likeliest: AC Horsens win · 66%
Likely scores: 0–1 12% · 0–2 12% · 1–2 11%
We make it 59% for both teams to score. The market says 53%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Brabrand14%18%−4
OursMarket
Draw20%20%0
OursMarket
AC Horsens66%62%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 53% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 34% | 38% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 86% | 82% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 80% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 18% | 23% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Brabrand
Win
- Sep 16 · v Viborg FF (H)2-1
AC Horsens
WinDrawDrawDrawWin
- Oct 25 · v Sønderjyske Fodbold (H)5-1
- Oct 16 · v Randers FC (H)0-0
- Oct 11 · at Silkeborg IF (A)3-3
- Sep 20 · v AGF (H)2-2
- Sep 16 · at Naesby (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Brabrand | AC Horsens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 80% |
| Both teams scored | — | 80% |
| Clean sheets | — | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.