League One (England) · Thu, May 14 · 19:00 · Bradford City vs Bolton Wanderers
Likeliest: Bradford City win · 46%
A 46% home win. The market says 38%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Bradford City46%38%+8
OursMarket
Draw27%28%0
OursMarket
Bolton Wanderers27%35%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 57% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 65% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 62% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 72% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 52% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Bradford City
DrawDrawDrawWinLoss
- May 9 · at Bolton Wanderers (A)0-1
- May 2 · at Exeter City (A)2-1
- Apr 25 · v Bolton Wanderers (H)1-1
- Apr 21 · v Plymouth Argyle (H)1-1
- Apr 18 · at Barnsley (A)2-2
Bolton Wanderers
WinDrawDrawLossWin
- May 9 · v Bradford City (H)1-0
- May 2 · v Luton Town (H)2-3
- Apr 25 · at Bradford City (A)1-1
- Apr 18 · v Huddersfield Town (H)3-3
- Apr 14 · v Stevenage (H)5-1
| Last 10 games | Bradford City | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.